煤矿水灾害影响因子的系统动力学研究

Research on Influencing Factors of Colliery Flood Based on System Dynamics

依据系统动力学的原理和方法,建立反映煤矿水灾害安全水平的系统动力学模型并进行动态仿真,研究了煤矿水灾害在多因素共同作用下的系统动力学演化机理,并对模型中关键参数进行灵敏度分析。结果表明,煤矿水灾害安全水平的提高是个长期的过程;加强安全管理,提高人员安全水平是减少煤矿水灾害事故的重点,为煤矿水灾害安全决策提供了一种新的分析思路。

In order to reduce the loss that results from colliery flood, a system dynamics model is estab- lished to describe the security level of colliery flood. Based on the model, simulation analysis is carried out under multiple factors. In this way, system dynamic evolution mechanism of colliery flood is revealed. Al- so, sensitivity analysis is made with respect to the key parameters of the model. Results show that to im- prove the security level of colliery flood is a long-term process. It also finds that, to improve the security level of colliery flood, effort should be made to strengthen the safety management and improve the person- nel security level. The proposed method is helpful for safety decision of colliery flood.