基于系统动力学模型的区域可持续发展分析

Analysis of Regional Sustainable Development Based on System Dynamics Model

结合系统动力学建模的原则和方法,构建了区域可持续发展系统动力学模型。根据区域社会经济发展和环境变化的动态性,子系统之间能量和物质流通的转化与信息的交互,形成人口、科技、环境、资源、经济5个子系统。某农业县三种方案对比的模拟实验表明,控制人口,大力发展生态农业和第三产业,优化产业发展结构,不但实现了GDP增长,而且环境质量指数稳步提升,促进了区域经济社会与环境的可持续发展。

Combining principles and methods of system dynamics modeling built a system dynamics model of regional sustainable development. According to regional socio - economic development, the dynamics of environmental change, change of energy and matter between the subsystems and information interaction, the five subsystems of population, technology, environment, resources, economy were formated. The experimental results of a comparison of the three options about a agricultural county showed： Controlling population, developing ecological agriculture and tertiary industry and optimizing the industrial structure, did not only that a GDP growth, steady improvement in environmental quality index were achieved, but also that the sustainable development of regional economic society and environment were promoted.