深埋隧道岩溶突水安全风险评价模型研究

Study on the Security Risk Assessment Model of Karst Water Burst in Deep Buried Tunnel

基于诱发深部岩溶隧道突水灾害风险因子群的识别,得到了岩溶突水的安全性参评指标并构建出评价指标体系;基于层次分析法,通过专家调查建立了参评因子的判断矩阵及各级权重比较矩阵,并计算得到了各因子的权重值。在此基础上,基于模糊数学理论,建立了隧道岩溶突水安全性评价模型及评判标准。最后结合马鹿箐隧道工程实例,对深部岩溶隧道突水安全风险进行了综合评判,结果与马鹿箐隧道突水实际情况一致,证明了评价模型的正确性与合理性。研究结论可为今后类似隧道工程岩溶突涌水灾害的安全评价提供借鉴与参考。

Based on the identification of risk factors inducing Karst water burst in the deep buried tunnel,the safety evaluation index system for Karst water burst is obtained;based on investigation by the experts,the participating factors matrix and comparison matrix on different levels are presented by ANP method,and the weight of each factor is obtained too.Based on the fuzzy mathematics,the tunnel safety evaluation of Karst water model and evaluation criteria is presented.Finally,a comprehensive evaluation for deep Karst tunnel safety risk of water inrush is made with Maluqing Tunnel project,the results show that the theoretical results are consistent with the actual situation which proves that evaluation of the model is correct and reasonable.Conclusions in this paper provide reference for safety evaluation of Karst water burst disaster in similar tunnel projects in future.