基于灰色系统理论的加油站火灾事故预测

A Study on Prediction of Gas Station Fire Accidents Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

加油站是火灾易发场所,同时也是火灾发生后影响最为严重的场所之一。利用灰色系统理论在不确定因素预测领域的优势,采用GM(1,1)模型对2000～2009年全国加油站火灾事故四项指标进行预测,并与实际数据加以比较,结果表明,模型比较合理地反映了加油站火灾事故的发展趋势,在此基础上对2012～2016年全国加油站火灾事故四项指标进行了预测,为相关部门有效预测加油站火灾规律提供了理论依据。

A gas station is a fire-prone place,but also one of the most seriously affected places after the fire breaks out.This paper utilizes the advantage of the gray system theory in the field of uncertainty predicted,predicts the nationwide station fire data from 2000 to 2009 by adopting the GM（1,1） model,and compared with the actual data,the result shows that the model reasonably reflects the developmental trend of station fires.The nationwide station fire data from 2012 to 2016 was predicted,which would provide a theoretical basis for the relevant department to effectively predict the regular pattern of station fires.