地质灾害风险管理研究综述及展望

Research Review on and Outlook for Risk Management of Geological Disaster

地质灾害风险管理是一种寻求更加合理有效的地质灾害减灾防灾的理念和模式。国外对于地质灾害风险管理的研究,主要是通过采用现代高技术与地质灾害风险管理相结合的方式体现出来的。国内学者对我国地质灾害的类型、特征、影响因素、分布状况和区域发展规律等进行了深入的研究,提出了许多新理论、新观点。需要解决的问题:(1)如何评估灾情程度需要科学的理论与切实可行的方法;(2)需要借助现代信息技术和数值模拟仿真技术建立地质灾害风险评价与风险管理的数学模型,以进一步拓展地质灾害风险管理的研究体系;(3)需要结合具体的区域,对风险管理措施、手段及传导机制进行系统仿真和比较研究。

Risk management of geo hazards is a cognition and model of effective disaster mitigation in order to make recommendations for prevention,preparedness and response.The research on geological disaster risk management in foreign countries is mainly represented with the combination of modern high technology and risk management of geological disaster.In China,many national scholars have carried on deep research on the type,features,influence factor,distribution and regional development pattern in respect to geological disasters and put forward a lot of new theory and new ideas.This paper analyses the problems to be resolved: disaster degree evaluation needs scientific theory and feasible method;establishing the mathematical model of geological disaster risk assessment and risk management needs use modern information technology and numerical simulation technology so as to further expand the research systems of risk management of geological disaster.