政权类型与战争结果:“民主胜利论”辨正

Regime Type and War Outcome:Identification and Correction of the Theory of Democracy Victory

以美国为代表的西方国家不仅赢得了冷战,而且在冷战后发动的一系列针对非西方民主国家的战争中取得了胜利,催生了国际关系中的"民主胜利论"。该理论认为在政权类型与战争结果之间存在因果关系。由于民主制度的优势,民主国家在与非民主国家的战争中更容易取得胜利。文章在对"民主胜利论"的主要观点进行阐述后,认为其赖以支撑的统计数据存在瑕疵,"选择效应"和"战场决胜"解释缺乏说服力,民主和战争胜利之间的因果变量关系难以成立。文章认为,作为自由主义国际关系理论的一脉,"民主胜利论"的理论和逻辑错误深嵌于其浓厚的西方"民主"迷思和意识形态情结之中。

Western countries not only won the Cold War,but also won many wars against non-democracies after the Cold War,which helped the emergence of the theory of democracy victory.The theory maintains there is a causation between regime type and war outcome.Democracies are more likely to win the war against non-democracies due to their democratic advantages.The article describes the main argumants of democracy victory and points out the flaw is statistical data.Both selection-effect argument and battlefield winning explanation are not convincing.The causation between democracy and war outcome is difficult to prove.International Politics