俄罗斯对独联体地区安全的影响力分析

Analysis of the Influence of Russia on CIS Regional Security

随着苏联时代的终结,特别是北约东扩进程的加快,部分独联体国家表示了加入北约的意愿,俄罗斯对独联体地区安全的影响力备受关注。对于俄罗斯还能否主导独联体地区安全,学术界存在分歧:一种观点认为,区域外大国对该地区安全的渗透,导致俄罗斯失去对独联体的控制权;另一种观点则认为,俄罗斯的国家实力及其与独联体国家传统的政治、经济和文化联系,仍能保障其有效影响独联体安全事务。本文从影响力的概念入手,分析俄罗斯对独联体地区安全影响力的分布结构、作用机制、限制性因素,回答俄罗斯对独联体地区安全是否仍具有核心影响力的问题。

Russia's influence on CIS regional security has been an issue of concern with the end of the Soviet era,especially with the acceleration of the process of NATO's enlargement,and the willingness of part of the CIS countries to join NATO.There are differences in the academia over whether Russia can still dominate CIS regional security.Starting from the concept of influence,this article will analyse the structure of distribution of security influence of Russia over the region of CIS,and the mechanism and limiting factors,then answer whether Russia still has a core influence on the security of the CIS region.