后西方国际体系与东方的兴起

Post-Western International System and the Rise of the East

400年的现代国际体系是一个西方国际体系。历史上由于西方的兴起,欧洲或西方的政治制度、国家利益与霸权排他性地塑造了现代国际体系,深嵌的西方权力一直是该体系最重要的特征之一。现在,随着新兴经济体的群体性崛起,现代国际体系已经进入转型的前奏阶段,"西方的衰落"和"东方的兴起"预示着即将展开的国际体系是一个后西方国际体系。在后西方国际体系中,国际政治权力正在东移,以金砖国家为代表的新兴大国的群体性崛起,标志着东方正在回归国际体系的中心,美国及其西方盟国的群体性衰落,为西方世界向东方世界的权力让渡创造了条件,虽然权力让渡会导致国际体系产生某种紧张状态,但总体上国际体系不会失序,因为新兴经济体的意图在于和平渐进地改变世界权力的结构,同时反体系的革命会造成争霸战争的历史悲剧重演。显而易见,资本主义性质的世界市场仍然是后西方国际体系的一个遗传基质,西方权力持续弱化和东西方地位渐趋平衡将成为后西方国际体系的一个重要特征。世界正在走向一个没有霸权、力量相对均衡的国际秩序。

The four-hundred-years modern international system is actually a Western international system which had been exclusively shaped by Western political system,national interests and hegemony since the 'rise of the West';The embedded Western power has always been an important characteristic of modern international system.Currently,along with the rise of emerging economies,modern international system is entering into a new era of transformation.Both 'the decline of the West' and 'the rise of the East' are indicating the forthcoming international system will be a post-Western one.International political power is changing from the West to the East.The rise of emerging great powers,such as BRICS,indicates that the East is coming back to the center of international arena,while the decline of the United States and its allies pave the way for cession of power from the West to the East.Despite a state of tension,the international system would keep stable and proceeds towards a new international order without hegemony.