现金持有偏离对企业业绩的影响——基于中国制造业上市公司的实证分析

The Impact of Deviation from Expected Cash Level on Corporate Performance——Based on Empirical Analysis on the Listed Manufacturing Companies in China

将企业实际持有的现金水平与正常水平的差额定义为现金持有偏离度,通过理论分析及实证回归构建样本企业正常现金持有水平的计算模型,并通过实证方法分析现金持有偏离对企业业绩的影响。研究结果表明,现金持有正向偏离和负向偏离都会对企业业绩产生负面影响,且现金持有发生负向偏离时对企业业绩产生的负面影响更大。

In this paper we first constructed a model to calculate the expected cash balance through the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.Then through comparing actual cash holdings with expected cash balance,we found that there is a distance between them of most corporations.This distance is defined as deviation from expected cash balance.At last we constructed three other models to analyze the effects of the deviation to corporate future performance.The results show that both excess and deficit in cash（relative to expected level） can reduce corporate future performance,but the effects are not necessarily symmetric.The effect of negative deviation from expected cash balance on future performance is stronger than that of positive deviation.