第29届奥运会中国体育代表团运动员组成结构与奖牌分布特点的分析与研究

Research and Analysis on the Composition Structure and Medal Distribution Characteristic of Chinese Sports Delegation in the 29^(th) Olympic Games

主要运用数理统计、文献资料调研等研究方法,对2008年在北京举办的第29届奥运会中国体育代表团运动员的组成结构以及分省(市)、项目、性别等交叉分析及获得的金牌和奖牌数量进行统计。研究认为,参加第29届奥运会的中国体育代表团是一支年轻、富有朝气的队伍,运动员学历层次普遍较高,运动员形态普遍高大、壮实;经济发展对奥运奖牌数呈现正相关,以省(市)GDP总量为自变量,把奖牌数(人次)作为应变量,得出每增加1 000亿元的GDP,奥运会奖牌数量(以人次计算)增加0.487块;"阴盛阳衰"现象单纯从取得奖牌或者金牌以项目为单位统计表现得有所改善,但以获得奖牌数量以运动员人数统计,这个现象还依然很严重;获得金牌和奖牌的项目主要集中在以技能主导类为主的我国传统优势项目上,而在田径、游泳和三大球等集体项目上竞技水平依然很低。

The methods of mathematical statistics and literature review have been adopted to analyze composition structure and medal and gold medal distribution of Chinese sports delegation and in Beijing 2008 Summer Olympic Games and on the composition of athletes,as well as provinces and municipalities,project analysis,gender and so on.The result shows that the Chinese sports delegation is a young and vibrant team,athletes generally have higher academic background,and their physique is tall and strong.Economic development is positively related to Olympic medal count.If taking the provincial and municipal GDP as an independent variable,and the number of medals（person-time） as the dependent variable,it can be drawn that an additional of $ 100 billion in GDP will lead to an increase of the number of medals（person-time） of 0.487.The phenomenon of women being always more than men in obtaining medals is considerably improved purely on basis of sports items,but it is still a tough problem while based on the number of athletes who obtained medals of Chinese sports delegation＇s advantage project mainly focus on Chinese traditional skill-oriented projects.However,competition level remains low on team sports such as track and field,swimming,football,basketball and volleyball.