突发灾害下城市路网交通流可靠性运行态势

Analysis of traffic flow reliability operation trend of urban road network under sudden disaster

为了识别突发灾害下交通流运行过程中路网可靠性的变化规律和潜在的运行态势,采用Rough集理论,结合城市道路交通状态判别、预测的知识,构建了突发灾害下路网可靠性知识表达系统。通过对路网元素属性数值的离散化处理,路网可靠性决策表的属性约简等一系列操作过程,实现了对路网可靠性运行态势的逻辑推理。试验结果表明:路网可靠性能够较好地拟合突发灾害下路网交通流的运行特征,交通路网可靠性态势分析的知识表达系统对可靠度的预测精度可达90%以上。

To identify the road network traffic flow reliability evolution and the potential trend under sudden disaster,the Rough set theory in combination with the urban traffic state identification and prediction knowledges were used to construct a knowledge representation system for the road traffic network reliability under sudden disaster.The logic reasoning of road traffic network reliability operation trend was realized through a series of operation processes,such as discretization of attribute data of the road traffic network elements,attribute and data reduction of the road traffic network reliability decision making table,etc.The experiment results demonstrated that the road traffic network reliability fits well with the traffic flow charactesistic under sudden disaster.The prediction accuracy of the proposed knowledge representation system for the road traffic network reliability reaches up to 90%.