基于时空棱柱方法的目的地选择行为建模

Destination choice behavior modeling based on space-time prism method

基于时空棱柱方法,将人的活动区域限制在一定的时空棱柱体内,根据出行者的活动计划,确定在一定时间限制下活动场所在空间上的可达性。提出了目的地选择行为分层的建模策略。引入小区吸引力因子,构建了非线性效用函数的目的地选择行为模型,探讨了小区吸引力因子的量化过程、参数标定及结果检验。结果表明:结合出行的时空约束和地理信息系统(Geographic information system,GIS)分析能够确定出行者的目的地选择集合。具有小区吸引力因子的非线性效用函数能够更准确地预测目的地选择行为。本文研究将出行理论与出行者的实际行为相结合,为目的地选择行为的建模提供了一种新思路。

Based on the space-time prism method,the traveller activity space was limited in a definite space-time prism,the accessibility of activity zone in space was defined under time constraints according to the activity plan of the traveller.A 2-step modeling strategy was proposed for the destination choice behavior.An attracting ratio of the zone was introduced,and a destination choice behavior model with a non-liner utility function was built,and the quantification process,the parameter calibration and the result check of the zone attracting ratio were discussed.The results showed that the destination choice set can be defined by the time-space constraints of the travel in combination with the GPS technology.The non-linear utility function with the zone attracting ratio can predict the destination choice behavior more accurately.The conbination of the theory and the real behavior of the traveller provides a new idea for modeling of the destination choice behavior.