新兴市场国家外汇市场压力影响因素研究

Research on the Factors Affecting Foreign Exchange Market Pressure in Emerging Economies

针对1997-1998年东亚金融危机和2007-2008年美国次债引发的全球性金融危机,本文对1990-2009年期间新兴市场国家外汇市场压力问题进行了比较研究。首先,本文统计分析了这两次危机前后样本国家外汇市场压力的阶段性特征,发现2000年以来,升值成为新兴市场国家绝对主导的外汇市场压力类型;其次,本文对两阶段外汇市场压力形成的影响因素进行了实证分析,比较结果发现,两阶段外汇市场压力形成的影响因素存在很大差异,本文从新兴市场国家经济政策变化和危机发源地差异的角度对其原因进行了分析;最后,本文对研究结果的政策含义进行了诠释。

The comparative analysis was focused on the question of foreign exchange market pressure （EMP） of New Emerging Countries during the period of 1990-2009 when East Asia Financial Crisis and Subprime Crisis occurred. Firstly, the indices of EMP at each stage were calculated and it was found that the appreciation pressure had become the leading factor. Secondly, the factors which affect EMP were analyzed empirically. It was found that the influencing factors were different at the two stages. The reason of the difference was explained from the perspective of economic policy changes and the difference of the origins of the two crises. In the end, the policy implications were interpreted.