基于数值模拟的台风危险性分析综述(Ⅱ)——随机抽样模拟与极值风速预测

Review of numerical simulation-based typhoon hazard analysis:random sampling simulation and extreme wind speed prediction

台风危险性分析是台风损失估计及防灾减灾的基础。对基于数值模拟的台风危险性分析所采用的随机台风概率模型、随机抽样模拟方法和极值风速预测进行了回顾与评述,包括台风关键参数概率模型及其相关性、台风路径模型、台风登陆衰减和海陆风速转换模型以及台风极值风速概率模型,并针对我国东南沿海地区台风危险性分析数值模拟采用的相关模型给出了相关建议。

Wind hazard analysis is the basis of typhoon loss estimation and disaster prevention and reduction.This paper reviewed and discussed the probabilistic models for typhoon,the random sampling method for typhoon simulation and extreme wind speed prediction.The discussions include probabilistic models of key typhoon parameters,typhoon track models,typhoon landing attenuation and sea-land wind speed transition models,and probabilistic models for extreme winds.In the end,the random typhoon simulation and wind hazard analysis model for southeast of China are suggested.