基于气象灾害预报的作物种植类型决策方法

Decision-making for crop's planting types based on meteorological disaster forecast

干旱、雨涝是农业生态方面重要的水文气象灾害,科学地根据水文气象预报来选择种植作物品种,一直是农业管理者、生产者非常关心的问题,传统的决策方法是根据农业总体区划、作物种植习惯和耕作习惯确定的,具有一定的局限性。提出了基于气象灾害预报对错概率的作物种植类型决策新方法,综合考虑了农业气象预报的误报概率和作物适应性,克服了传统方法的不足。对绥棱农场某种植区20年的水文气象资料进行了分析,计算了旱涝预报与实况联合概率矩阵,推导出水文气象预报对错概率矩阵;根据作物品种在不同天气状况的产量,确定了决策失误损失矩阵。实证分析表明,所提决策方法可有效地减少因旱涝灾害给粮食产量带来的损失,对作物品种的选择具有很好的实用参考价值。

Drought and waterlogging are important weather disasters that influence agriculture production.The problem of how to select crop variety according to meteorology forecasting is much concerned by agricultural managers and producers.Traditional decision-making for selecting crop variety are usually determined according to the agriculture general programming,crops＇ planting and farming habit,which has inherent limitations.This paper sets up a new decision-making method for selecting crop variety,in which the right or wrong probability of agricultural meteorological forecast and crop adaptability are comprehensively analyzed,and the deficiency of the traditional methods are overcome.Taking Suiling farm in Heilongjiang Province as an example,we analyzed the hydrological and meteorological data in recent 20 years,calculated the joint probability matrix,deduced the right or wrong probability matrix according to the meteorological and hydrological forecast,and then determined the loss matrix from wrong meteorological forecast according to the crop＇s variety production in different weather.The empirical analysis showed that the decision-making method for crop variety selection can reduce the loss of crop production from drought and flood disasters more effectively and can provide a very good practical reference value on the crop variety chosen.