基于模糊故障树的海洋立管破坏失效风险分析

Risk analysis of failure damage to marine riser based on fuzzy fault tree

针对海洋立管破坏失效事故资料不完备及发生概率缺乏精确值的现状,提出了基于模糊故障树的海洋立管破坏失效风险分析方法。通过对现有的海洋立管破坏失效事故原因的统计分析,建立了以"海洋立管破坏失效"为顶事件的故障树。在对故障树进行定性分析的基础上,得到了引起海洋立管破坏失效的105个各阶最小割集,确定了海洋立管发生破坏失效的主要模式。采用专家判断法与模糊集理论结合的方法对故障树进行了定量分析,评估了故障树底事件的发生概率,并计算了故障树顶事件的发生概率。通过模糊故障树分析得到了海洋立管系统的薄弱环节,从而可以对其采取有效措施,以降低事故发生概率及提高系统可靠性。

Due to incompletion information and lack of accurate data of occurrence probability about the failure damage to the marine riser,the risk analysis of the failure damage to the marine riser based on fuzzy fault tree was proposed herein.Through the statistical analysis of the causes of marine riser failures,fault tree using failure damage to the marine riser as the top event was built.Based on the qualitative analysis,105 minimum cut sets were obtained and the failure mode was ascertained.Based on experts＇ estimation with the fuzzy set theory,quantitative analysis of the fault tree was given,the probability of the base events was assessed and the probability of the top event was calculated.Through these analyses,the weak links of the marine riser system could be found,and thus effective measures can be taken to decrease the probability of accident occurrence and increase the reliability of the system.