金融状况、通胀不确定性与通胀预测——基于Markov机制转换模型的分析

Financial Condition,Uncertainty of Inflation and Inflation Forecasting——Analysis Based on Markov Switching Model

一国的金融状况一般通过信贷传导机制、利率传导机制、汇率传导机制和资产价格传导机制来影响通胀水平并决定通胀趋势,但高通胀水平伴随着较大的通胀不确定性。FCI能有效预测我国的通胀趋势,高通胀状态下FCI对通胀趋势的预测能力强于低通胀状态;低通胀状态下FCI对通胀趋势的短期预测效果优于中长期。我国应尽快指定相关部门制定并定期公布FCI,充分发挥FCI的通胀预测功能,并以此帮助国家实施宏观经济监测、完善调控政策、提高通胀治理效率。要提高央行政策制定的透明度,应避免频繁的政策方向变动,政策调控应尽量平滑操作,从而维持货币政策的稳定性和连贯性、降低通胀不确定性。要充分利用低通胀环境赋予的有利时机推进价格等各项体制的改革。

The mechanism of inflation in our country has relatively high stability,but high inflation accompanied by relatively large uncertainty of inflation.FCI could effectively forecast our country's inflation trend,the forecasting power of FCI is higher with high inflation than with low inflation.Under low inflation,FCI's forecasting power is higher for short term than for long term.Concerned government agencies should publish FCI regularly to take advantage of FCI's function of inflation forecasting,which could aid the country's macroeconomic monitoring,perfect policies of macroeconomic regulation,improve the transparency of central bank policy making,frequently change of policy direction should be avoided,macroeconomic regulation should be as smooth as possible,henceforth keep stability and continuity of monetary policy,reduce the uncertainty of inflation.The favourable opportunity provided by low inflation environment ought to be used sufficiently to push reforms in all sectors ahead.