基于灰色斜率相似关联度的柳林泉域降水时滞分析

Study on Time Delay of Precipitation in Liulin Spring Basin Based on Incidence Degree of Grey Gradient Similarity

研究降水时滞可为柳林泉流量预测提供理论依据。采用灰色斜率相似关联度分析模型,结合柳林泉域水文地质条件,研究了降水时滞问题。结果表明,泉域内不同区域接受的大气降水对泉流量的影响时滞存在差异,即Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ区接受的大气降水分别在1年内、1～2、4～5、8～9年对泉流量产生影响;月泉流量分别在4、6、8月出现峰值,第一次峰值受前期降水与当年融雪水的影响,后两次峰值则是前期降水与当年降水共同作用的结果。

The study of the time delay between the precipitation and the discharge can provide certain theoretical basis for forecasting discharge in Liulin spring.By using the grey gradient similarity incidence analysis model,combined with hydrogeological condition of Liulin spring area,the delay time of precipitation is analyzed.The results show that the discharge is influenced by precipitation within one year in Ⅰzone while 1-2 years in Ⅱ zone,4-5 years in Ⅲ zone and 8-9 years in Ⅳ zone;the monthly discharge has three peak-values within one year,which happened in April,June and August,respectively;the snowmelt and antecedent precipitation had impact on the first peak-value while combination of antecedent precipitation and current precipitation influenced the rest of peak-values.