人民币升值对出口企业研发活动的影响——异质企业双寡头博弈分析

The Effects of RMB Appreciation on Export Firms' R&D:Game Analysis of Two Heterogeneous Firms

人民币升值对我国出口企业的研发活动影响如何,对此问题进行探讨可以为在汇率制度改革背景下促进我国经济转型升级提供启示。本文借鉴新新贸易理论的研究,对出口企业按照生产效率不同区分为高效率企业和低效率企业;构建了包含研发和产量竞争的双寡头博弈模型,以分析在竞争关系中人民币升值对出口企业均衡研发策略的影响。结果表明,在高效率企业具有较大成本优势的情况下,本币升值会促使低效率企业退出研发活动,维持或者增强高效率企业开展研发活动的积极性,从而有利于在长期内提升出口行业的竞争力。使用上市公司数据进行的实证分析能够较好地支持上述结论。由此建议:在升值背景下,应当鼓励低效率企业尽早转移生产基地或者退出海外市场,为高效率出口企业生存发展提供空间;发展完善金融体系、提高投融资效率,在缓解短期冲击的同时引导不同出口企业根据自身情况转型、升级,才能够为现阶段的经济稳定和未来经济的健康发展提供支持。

How does RMB appreciation affect China＇s export enterprises＇ R＆D activities？ Exploration into this issue might provide inspiration to promote China＇s economic transformation and upgrading in the context of exchange rate system reform. At present, theoretical research into the direct effects of exchange rate changes on R＆D investment is relatively small. The ＂new-new international trade theory＂ is more concerned about the impact of trade liberalization on firm productivity and technological innovation behavior. However, the role of exchange rate as an important price variable in the international economic activities, adjusting the allocation of resources, has largely been ignored. Drawing on the ＂new-new international trade theory＂, we characterize two heterogeneous export firms by their difference in productivity, and use the game model to depict their competitive interaction. Using this model, we analyze the impact of exchange rate changes on two heterogeneous export enterprises＇ R＆D equilibriums. The R＆D activity here refers to the ＂Process R＆D＂, where enterprises reduce production costs by improving their production processes. The results show that, how the currency appreciation affects a single export enterprise＇ s R＆D and the export industry＇s overall R＆D activities mainly depends on whether the advantage of the high-efficiency export firm is significant enough. If the high-efficiency enterprise initially has great advantage, reflected by pretty low marginal production cost, its R＆D efforts tend to sustain or even increase under currency appreciation. On the contrary, its rival, the low-efficiency enterprise might withdraw from R＆D because the appreciation leads to shrinking profits and makes R＆D unworthy. Such ＂survival of the fittest＂ is conducive to enhancing the competitiveness of export industry in the long run. As for the pace of the exchange rate adjustment ： slow appreciation might be good for export industries where the majority enterprises have no obvious advantage in efficiency, in the sense that it may give these enterprises enough time to improve and distinguish themselves. On the other hand, quick appreciation might be preferable for export industries with wide performance gaps, for it could urge the inferior enterprises to withdraw as soon as possible, and to make room for high-efficiency companies＇ upgrading. Then we use the listed companies that have export revenues and continuously announce R＆D expenses as a sample for empirical research. It is found that both the low-efficiency group and the high-efficiency group improve their R＆D intensity in respond to RMB appreciation, while the latter improve more strongly. It should be notated that the listed companies are relatively high-performance ones within the whole economy and the continuous reporting of R＆D expenses might indicate the existence of the serf-choosing problem in sample selection. Therefore, the empirical results could only conform that high-efficiency export enterprises increased R＆D efforts in the case of RMB appreciation. However, the non-listed export enterprises strategies still need further investigation. The policy suggestions are as fellows： In the context of appreciation, inefficient export enterprises should be encouraged to transfer production base or to exit the overseas markets early to provide space for the survival and development of highly efficient export firms. Further reform and development of the financial system is called for to improve the efficiency of investment and financing activities in the whole economy. Because we need a healthy financial system as well as proper loan policies to alleviate the short-term unfavorable impact received by export enterprises and to support their adventures into restructuring and upgrading. Only in this way could the stability of current transformation be guaranteed and the potential competitiveness of future growth forged.