基于梯形模糊数的电力变压器故障模式重要度评定方法研究

Importance Evaluation Method on the Failure Modes of Power Transformer Based on Trapezoidal Fuzzy Number

电力变压器各部件故障模式之间具有高度的复杂性和关联性,且设备价值昂贵,实施可靠性试验困难,所以难以利用传统重要度定义的方法进行重要度分析。鉴于上述问题,笔者提出了基于梯形模糊数的重要度评定方法。通过分析影响故障模式重要度的因素,建立了重要度评价指标体系,并借助德尔菲法制定了指标的评价等级及相应评分准则,引入了协调程度的概念对专家评分进行修正,并利用梯形模糊数确定指标权重,最终通过线性加权将指标与指标权重结合,得到了各故障模式的重要度。计算实例表明,该方法简便、有效,可用于电力变压器的可靠性评估及维修决策。

The fault modes of the components of the power transformer is complex and highly correlated, and the implementation of reliability tests is difficult because of the high value of the equipment, so it is hard to make importance evaluation by using traditional method. Aiming at those problems, a new evaluation method on importance based on trapezoidal fuzzy number is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the evaluation index system of importance is established which using the Delphi method to formulate the score rating criteria and applying the coordination degree to amend the scores. Secondly, the trapezoidal fuzzy numbers is applied to determine the indicator weight. Last, the importance of each failure mode of transformer is determined on the basis of the indicator combining with the weight through the linear weighting method. It is shown by the instance that this method is convenient and effective, which can be used in making the reliability evaluation and maintenance decision of the power transformer.