化石能源耗竭与气候变化约束下的经济低碳转型

Transition to a Low-carbon Economy under the Constraints of FossilEnergy Depletion and Climate Change

本文构建了一个包含产品生产、技术研发、新能源生产和温室气体减排四个部门的内生增长模型;并运用最优控制理论,研究了在化石能源耗竭与气候变化约束下,经济低碳转型中的一系列关键变量的长期行为方式和中短期平衡增长路径;进而刻画了劳动力在各部门间的配置和转移、化石能源价格、排放空间价格对能源结构、碳强度、消费、单位劳动碳减排量、单位劳动产出等变量的影响机制;同时揭示了运用一些政策工具实现经济低碳转型的时机选择。

An endogenous growth model embodied four sectors including production,R&D,new energy production and greenhouse gas reduction is developed to investigate the long-term behavior and short-term balanced growth path of some key variables in the transition to a low-carbon economy under the constraints of fossil energy depletion and climate change by using optimal control theory.The paper also portrays the impacts of the allocation of labor among sectors and the prices of fossil energy and carbon emission space on the energy structure,carbon intensity,consumption,carbon reduction per labor,and output per labor.The paper then reveals the timing of implementing a number of policy instruments to achieve low-carbon transition.