公众预期、需求冲击与通货膨胀——兼论通胀持久性的地区差异

Public Expectations,Demand Shock and Inflation—Regional Difference of the Inflation Persistence

本文基于具有微观基础的混合式新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线模型,利用1985-2009年的省际面板数据,分析了预期因素、需求冲击及产出缺口与通货膨胀之间的动态过程及其地区差异。研究发现:总体上,无论是适应性预期还是理性预期对当期通货膨胀都有较强的推动作用;作为需求冲击的居民消费支出、固定资本形成以及产出缺口对通货膨胀都具有正向拉动作用。从通货膨胀持久性的地区差异上看,西部地区的通胀持续性最长,中部最短。

Based on a micro-based hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve model with provincial panel data through 1985-2009,this paper analyzes the relationships among the expected factors,demand shocks,output gap and inflation and its regional differences.According to empirical conclusions,we find that both rational and adaptive expectations of current inflation expectations play a strong role on the inflation,and that consumer expenditure,fixed capital formation and output gap to inflation have positive pull effect.From the viewpoint of regional differences in inflation persistence,the Western region has the longest inflation persistence while the Central region the shortest.