产出缺口与中国地区通货膨胀

Output Gap and Regional Inflation in China

借鉴开放经济条件下新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线,采用中国省际面板数据,构建一个包含本地区产出缺口、国内其他地区产出缺口和国外产出缺口的三缺口通货膨胀模型,实证分析产出缺口对中国地区通货膨胀的影响,同时分东部和中西部考察区域差异。实证研究结论表明,国内外产出缺口显著影响我国地区通货膨胀。较之中西部地区更多受到国内产出缺口的影响,东部地区则更多受到国外产出缺口的冲击。而且,国内地区间的通货膨胀压力传导在东部地区较中西部更明显。另外,政府的反需求管理措施存在时滞,且政策调控主要降低了本地区产出缺口形成的通货膨胀压力。

This paper focuses on a new estimate on the relationship between output gap and inflation with provincial panel data in China based on Open-Economy Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve Model.The empirical results show that both domestic and foreign output have significant effect on inflation with greater impact of foreign output gap on inflation than local output gap in the eastern region.Furthermore,output gap pressure resulted from other regions has more significant impact on inflation in the eastern region than that in the mid-western region.In addition,there exists reverse causality between output gap and inflation with time lag effect.Local governments reduce inflation pressure by means of cutting down local output gap.