海峡两岸经济合作协议对台湾地区经济之影响

An Assessment of ECFA Effects on Taiwan's Economy

本文就海峡两岸经济合作框架协议(ECFA)对我国台湾地区总体经济与产业经济的影响进行了评估,认为ECFA的签署使台湾地区得以消除贸易壁垒,融入区域经济整合具有正面效益。在产业经济层面,本文分析了ECFA早期收获清单对台湾地区产业的效益,以及海峡两岸新兴产业合作的前景,并运用计量分析方法就海峡两岸经贸合作对台湾地区产业结构的影响进行了实证研究。分析研究的结论认为:ECFA的签署不仅将为台湾地区的产业带来效益,更为海峡两岸产业合作与台湾地区的产业升级带来新的契机。

This paper explores to evaluate the impact of the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement（ECFA） on Taiwan＇s macro-economy and industrial economy from Macro-view and Middle-view perspective respectively.The conclusion is that the signing of ECFA ease trade barrier,which can better integrate Taiwan into East Asia economy,have positive effects on Taiwan＇s economy.For industry,the article analyzes the benefit of the ECFA early harvest to Taiwan＇s industry and the perspective of the cross-strait new industry cooperation.The study also further experiments on the impact of Taiwan＇s industry structure on cross-strait economy cooperation based on econometrics method.The conclusion is that ECFA not only bring the specific benefits of tariff reduction and exemption to Taiwan＇s industry,but also bring the new opportunity for cross-strait economy cooperation and the Taiwan＇s industrial upgrading.