城乡贫困动态演化的实证研究——基于家庭微观面板数据的解读

Empirical Analysis on the Poverty Dynamics in China-Based on the Panel Data of Household

改革开放以来,城乡绝对贫困问题得到了很大程度的缓解,而相对贫困问题则日益突出;同时,城乡贫困还表现出明显的动态演化特征。本文借助CHNS数据库,对城乡贫困动态演化进行实证研究。其结果显示:经济增长、人力资本以及家庭区位特征、家庭人口特征和劳动就业状况等变量是城乡贫困跨期变动的重要因素,但其影响大小和作用机制在城乡之间存在较大的差异。基于此,本文提出反贫困政策的制定和实施要注意政策受众的差异以及政策工具作用机制的不同。

Since Great Reform,the Absolute Poverty has been alleviated but the Relative Poverty is more obvious;Meanwhile the Poverty is characterized by a dynamic change.Based on household panel of CHNS,this paper pursues empirical analysis on the Poverty Dynamics.We conclude that： Economic Growth,Human Capital and other variables influence the Poverty Dynamics greatly,but the level and mechanism are different.Thus we propose that the policy of poverty alleviation should have a change accordingly.