房产税、地价与房价

Property Tax,Land Price and House Price

本文分别对住房和商业房屋构建一个购房者、开发商和政府的三部门一般均衡模型,说明了房产税、地价与房价之间的关系。理论模型显示,提高房产税将降低房价,提高上期地价和房屋建造成本将提高房价。本文对中国33个大中城市1996-2008年的商业房产税数据检验发现,房产税和地价的回归系数较小。因此,不应对中国即将开征的住房房产税以及地价的作用进行过高估计。其次,东部城市房价主要由需求拉动,中心部城市房价主要由成本推动。因此,降低房价应因地制宜,不宜搞一刀切。最后,房产税与土地出让金不存在挤出效应。

This paper constructs a three-sector general equilibrium model for buyer,developer and local government in residential property market and commercial property market respectively and investigates the relationship between property tax,land price and house price.The theoretical model illustrates that house price will decline in the event of property tax increase,but will appreciate with the increments of land price and construction cost.Employing the commercial property market data of 33 large and medium cities in China from 1996-2008,this paper finds that the coefficients of property tax and land price are significantly small.Hence,the roles of property tax and land price in curbing house price should not be overestimated.Second,the house prices are primarily driven by household income in eastern cities,but driven by developing cost in middle and western cities.Accordingly,the house price policies should be consistent with local market circumstances.Finally,the property tax revenue does not crow out the land revenue.