增值税转型对居民消费价格影响的实证研究

An Empirical Research on Impacts of VAT Transition Reform on Resident Consumer Price

本文采用2009年全国增值税转型前后3年的月度居民消费价格分类指数,应用二次差分回归模型,计算出税制改革对各类居民消费品税收转嫁的具体参数及转嫁时间,并结合各类消费品市场的结构特点分析了增值税转型对居民消费价格的影响,得出了2009年增值税转型带来的实际税负降低,转嫁给消费者的份额平均为79%在垄断程度高的烟酒及用品消费品市场,税收转嫁给消费者的份额较低等结论。

By using the monthly consumer price index three years before and after 2009 and employ- ing second difference regression model, this paper comes up with both tax shifting parameters and tim- ing of various consumer goods by tax reform during VAT transition in 2009, and then analyzes the impact of consumer price from VAT transition by consider- ing various consumer markets, and finally reaches a conclusion that the VAT transition in 2009 makes the real tax burden declining and the average VAT shift- ing parameter is 79% but shift price to consumers turns out to be relatively low in the consumer market with high monopoly like tobacco, alcohol and etc.