中国区域资本流动:动态与区域差异——基于1978～2009年数据

Chinese Regional Capital Mobility:Dynamics and Regional Differences—Based on 1978～2009 Data

中国国内资本流动受限阻碍了内需的形成导致内外失衡问题越发严重。本文基于Campbell-Mankiw永久收入模型从私人消费和净产出关系角度测度资本流动程度,并采用混合OLS、GMM和Swamy's随机系数模型等计量方法分析其入世前后的时序和区域差异性。结果表明:我国总体资本流动水平低于主要OECD国家的平均水平,多数省份资本流动程度较低且区域差距较大,其中长三角地区的资本向其他区域流动的水平最低,"入世"对我国资本市场的总体影响有限,然而它对各个区域的影响是不对称的,"入世"后私人消费和净产出相关程度上升的区域其资本流动受限明显且幅度有较大上升,而私人消费和净产出相关程度降低的地区其资本流动略有改善,但其改善幅度远低于其他地区资本流动恶化的幅度。

The constraint on Chinese domestic capital mobility had badly hindered the cultivation of do- mestic demand, which in turn exacerbated the external imbalances problem. This paper employs Camp- bell-Mankiw＇ s permanent income model to derive capital mobility estimation function based on private consumption-net output correlation. And applies pooled OLS, GMM and Swamy＇ s random-coefficients model to estimate the timing and regional difference in capital mobility within China. The result shows that China＇ s general capital mobility level is lower than the average level of main OECD countries, actually most of Chinese provinces＇ capital mobility level is low and the regional gap is huge, among them the Yangtze River Delta＇ s capital outflow level is the lowest. Meanwhile, China＇ s accession to the WTO has limited impact on domestic capital market, but it is uneven. After the accession to the WTO, the con- straint on capital mobility is much severer in the regions where the correlation between private consumption and net output is higher, however, the freedom of capital mobility is just slightly improved in the regions where the correlation of private consumption and net output is lower.