中国对外贸易对碳排放量的影响及其驱动因素的实证分析被引量：19

The Influence and Driving Factors of Foreign Trade on China's CO2 Emission

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摘要本文采用多边投入产出模型的贸易数据计算1997-2008年贸易内涵CO2量,结果显示,对外贸易不利于我国CO2减排量(BEET)目标的实现,但有利于降低我国的碳排放强度(PTT)。本文同时利用Divisia指数分解模型对上述结果进行了解释。各部门BEET的分解结果显示,规模效应是造成我国净内涵CO2增加的重要原因,而技术效应有利于我国环境质量(CO2减排量)的提高,但结构效应的作用并不明显。对各部门的PTT做Divisia指数分解结果表明,技术效应有利于降低我国污染强度,结构效应的影响并不统一,可以通过结构效应和技术效应的"交叉"作用,降低CO2排放强度。 This paper studies the influence of foreign trade on CO2 emission by using MRIO model and then accounts for the influences by using Divisia Index decomposition. The result shows that foreign trade can reduce CO2 emission intensity （PTT）, while increasing the CO2 emission （BEET） . The results of Divisia Index Decomposition into BEET from each sector show that scale effect（trade surplus） is the main cause of the CO2 emission increase, while technology effect can decrease it. The composition effect is uncertain. This paper explores the driving factors of PTT by Divisia Index Decomposition to exclude the scale effect on CO2 emission. The result shows that technology effect can reduce the PTT while composition effect is still uncertain. Adjustment of the ＂cross＂ influence between them is effective to reduce the PTT.

作者傅京燕裴前丽

机构地区暨南大学经济学院资源环境与可持续发展研究所暨南大学经济学院国际经贸系

出处《财贸经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2012年第5期75-81,共7页 Finance & Trade Economics

基金教育部重大攻关课题(08JZD0014)“中国现代产业体系研究”,教育部人文社科项目(11YJC790042)“碳排放约束下我国外贸发展方式转变机制与政策效应研究”的阶段性成果

关键词对外贸易 CO2净内涵量 MRIO模型 Divisia指数分解 Foreign Trade, Net Carbon Content of Trade, MRIO Model, Divisia Index Decomposition

分类号 X502 [环境科学与工程—环境工程] F752 [经济管理—国际贸易]

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参考文献5

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