房产税对房价的影响：来自OECD国家的证据

The Impact of Property Tax upon Housing Price:Evidence from OECD Countries

本文使用1980-2009年23个OECD国家的住房市场数据,考察了住房房产税对房价的影响。研究发现:第一,房产税对房价具有显著负向作用,但过去30年23个OECD国家房产税率的均值为2.61%。这表明,尽管房产税能有效降低房价,但地方政府不大可能通过大幅提高房产税率来实现。因此,房产税对房价的抑制作用具有局限性。第二,预期比房产税对房价影响更大。因此,改变房价增长预期、抑制投机的政策比房产税更有效。第三,长期利率的回归系数不仅小于房产税,而且符号为正。因此,房产税政策比利率政策更有效。第四,房价主要是由收入和人口决定的,房价仍未脱离基本经济面。因此,收入和人口的变动可以预测房价的长期变动。最后,住房建造成本回归系数不显著。因此,房价并非主要由成本决定,降低住房建造成本并不能降低房价。

Using the housing market dataset of 23 OECD countries from 1980 to 2009, this paper investigates the impact of property tax on housing price. First, empirical study documents the theoretical proposition. The average property tax rate, however, is 2.61%for the sample OECD nations over the past 30 years. Thus, the local governments are less likely to curb the housing price via unlimitedly increasing property tax rate. Secondly, expectation is more significant than property tax for housing price. Thereby, the policies aiming at speculative expectations are more valid than property tax. Thirdly, the coefficient of long-term interest rate is less than that o{ property tax and its coefficient sign is positive. Therefore, property tax is more important than interest rate in controlling housing price. Fourthly, the housing price is primarily determined by household income and national population, which implies that the housing price does not deviate from the economic fundamentals. Accordingly, the variations of income and population can predict long-run housing price variation. Finally, the construction cost coefficient is not significant, which indicates that housing price is not mainly determined by construction cost. Hence, housing price depreciation is less likely to be fulfilled by decreasing construction cost.