摘要
卫生总费用在对于我国卫生事业的发展具有重要意义,文章选取1978～2009年卫生总费用的数据,利用ARIMA(3,3,4)模型进行拟合预测,预测精度良好,并对2010～2012年的卫生总费用进行预测,结果分别为19777.72、23102.38、27425.46亿美元。并根据卫生总费用与GDP的关系提出加强卫生资源投入综合利用效率等的建议。
Abstract Total health expenditure is important in health development of China. The article selected total health expenditure data from 1978 to 2009, used ARIMA （3,3,4） model to perform the prediction analysis, and found out that the prediction accura- cy is good. The 2010＂2012 total health expenditures were predicted ,which are 1977. 772,2310. 238,2742. 546 billion dollars re- spectively. According to the relationship between total health expenditure and GDP, the article proposed to enhance the comprehensive utilization efficiency of health resources investments.
出处
《中国卫生事业管理》
北大核心
2012年第5期356-357,372,共3页
Chinese Health Service Management
基金
山东省自然科学基金(项目编号:ZR2009CM069)
关键词
时间序列模型
卫生总费用
增长
预测
time series model
total health expenditure
growth
prediction
