政府生产性补贴是否促进了中国企业出口?——基于制造业企业面板数据的微观计量分析

Have the Production-related Subsidies of the Government Promoted the Export of China's Firms?

为分析生产性补贴是否对中国企业出口行为具有正向促进作用，本文选取2003～2007年中国制造业企业58649个样本企业的微观面板数据，首先采用Logit模型、Fractional Logit模型初步分析生产性补贴与企业出口行为之间的相关关系。然后，基于二者之间的相关分析结果，本文进一步使用“倾向指数匹配方法”（PSM）分析生产性补贴与企业出口行为之间的因果关系。研究发现：生产性补贴与企业出口行为之间不仅存在显著的正相关关系，而且还存在着显著的单向因果关系，即生产性补贴既是促使潜在出口企业做出出口决策、也是促使在位出口企业提升出口密集度的原因，总体而言，生产性补贴确实对中国制造业企业的出口行为产生了正向促进作用。最后，本文提出了以促进企业出口为目标的政府补贴政策实施建议。

In order to analyze whether the production-relate subsidies(PRS) positively promote the behavior of export of China's enterprises(BOEOCE),we have,in this article,selected the micro panel data on 58649 sample enterprises in China's manufacturing industries from 2003 to 2007.First,we have used the Logit model and the Fractional Logit model to preliminarily analyze the relationship between the PRS and the BOEOCE;second,founded on the results of the related,between the PRS and BOEOCE,analysis,we have,in this paper,further adopted the PSM to analyze the causal relationship between the PRS and the BOEOCE.By our research,we have found that not only there exists obvious positive relationship between the PRS and the BOEOCE,but also there exists noticeable one-way causal relationship,that is to say,the PRS is not only the cause for promoting the latent enterprises to make a decision on exports,but also the cause for promoting the existing the enterprise engaged in export to increase the degree of the export concentration.Over all,the PRS has indeed produced a positive role for the promotion of the BOEOCE.Finally,we have,in this paper,made a suggestion about the carrying out,aimed at the promotion of enterprises' export,of the government's policy for subsidy.