光伏产业产品销售量预判方法研究与仿真

Photovoltaic Industry Product Sales Anticipation Method Research and Simulation

研究光伏产业销售量的预判问题,提高判断结果的准确性。光伏产业与传统产业不同,在销售过程中存在较大特殊性,市场需求和供给在时间上存在较大跨度,市场上的需求和供给也极为不同步,造成销售量、生产量之间存在较大的时域冲突。传统的销售量预判模型多是基于销售量和生产量这两个单项指标完成估计的,两者的冲突会导致数学模型发生逆向偏差,造成判断准确性不高。为此提出了一种基于冲突融合集重心评价的光伏产业产品销售量估计方法。通过确定建立冲突融合规则和单项指标的比重冲突融合区间,计算指标控制函数的权值重心,运用冲突融合计算理论求出判断意见,最小化单项之间的冲突。实验结果表明,该算法能够提高光伏产业销售量判断结果的准确性,取得良好效果。

Research pv industry product sales anticipation problems and improve the accuracy of the judgment.According to the traditional photovoltaic industry product sales indicators,each single index weight and the right proportion of possible conflict between value must be,some large photovoltaic industry index is overmuch,heavy weight values of the single index data value between large weights chance conflict,the traditional sales predictions based on a single method is more important single index finished estimation,the conflict will lead to estimate mathematical model happen reverse deviation,cause judgment not high accuracy.In order to solve this problem,this paper proposes an evaluation based on fuzzy sets focus of pv industry product sales that method.Through the determination to establish fuzzy rules and single index proportion of fuzzy interval,computing indices membership functions of the center of gravity weights,using the theory of fuzzy calculation for a judge opinion,minimize the conflict between individual.The experimental results show that this algorithm can improve the accuracy of the judgment and have gained good effects.