俄罗斯可靠吗?

Is Russia Reliable?

盟友的基础是共同的战略安全利益,因此盟友的可靠性主要取决于共同安全利益的大小:大则可靠性强,小则可靠性差。俄罗斯是否可靠主要取决于中俄同盟对俄有多大的战略利益。无论俄罗斯对中国友好与否,俄都没有比与中国结盟更好的战略选择。美国不接纳中、俄为盟友的国际环境,中国不断增长的军事实力以及中国的战略合作诚意,三者能使其很容易看到俄罗斯履行盟友责任利大于弊。

The foundation of an alliance is a common strategic and security interest.The reliability of an ally is mainly decided by to what extent they share common security interests: The more common security interests,the more reliable they would be to each other;the fewer common security interests,the mutually less reliable they would be.To set up an alliance,huge common strategic and security interests are needed among participating members.No one will withdraw from an alliance as long as the membership brings about no harm to it.If a member decides to exit from the alliance,then such a decision is based on its judgment that its withdrawal will bring to it more security and strategic interests than its membership.Whether or not Russia is reliable to China is largely decided by what strategic interests the China-Russia alliance will bring to Moscow.Whether or not it holds a friendly attitude toward China,Russia has no better strategic choices than forging an alliance with Beijing.The United States' unwillingness to accept China and Russia as allies,China's growing military strength and its aspiration to conduct strategic cooperation with Russia all make it crystal clear to Russians that the advantages brought by their fulfillment of responsibilities as China's ally will be bigger than the disadvantages of the same choice.