高投资与中国经济增长:资本生产率的考察

High Investment and the Chinese Economic Growth

高投资推动了过去30多年中国经济的高增长,但越来越多的人开始怀疑这种增长模式的可持续性。通过永续盘存法估算出1978—2009年的中国资本存量,对中国高投资现实进行了描述。对资本生产率指标的考察表明,中国经济的高投资增长模式导致了资本生产率指标的日益恶化,这对中国经济的可持续发展形成了重大挑战。

Although high investment has contributed to the economic growth in the past 30 years, an increasing number of people are beginning to doubt the sustainability of the growth based on such a pattern. The paper, based on a description of the capital stock in the period 1978--2009, points out that the high-investment growth pattern in effect leads to the deterioration of the capital productivity and thus hampers the sustainability of the Chinese economy.