呼吸道传染病空气传播的感染概率的预测模型

Prediction of risk of airborne transmitted diseases

为了加强对空气传染病风险的理解和预测,综述了呼吸道传染病的空气传染特点、传染途径以及预测空气传染病感染风险的模型.基于病人呼出飞沫蒸发后剩余飞沫核(通常小于5μm)在空间均匀分布的假设,介绍了预测呼吸道传染病空气传播风险模型,其中重点介绍Wells-Riley方程的推导、验证及发展,并汇总了已有报道中呼吸道传染病的病毒量(quanta产生率).根据Wells-Riley方程研究了通风和通风量、病人呼出病毒量等对感染概率的影响.结果表明,通风可以显著降低感染概率,但对于某些极端的超级传播事件,还需要其他保护措施.

In order to improve the understanding of the risk of airborne infection and its predicting method, the vehicle of airborne transmitted diseases and risk prediction model of airborne transmitted diseases in an enclosed space are reviewed. Droplet nuclei, the residues of droplets, are considered as the vehicle of airborne transmitted diseases, because they can suspend in air for long time due to small size （less than 5 Ixm）. Based on the fact, the Wells-Riley model were derived and verified. The risk estimation models, especially the Wells-Riley model and its modifications, are introduced. Furthermore, the influence parameters such as ventilation rate and quanta generation on the risk are discussed. For the most cases, ventilation can reduce the risk obviously; however, it is not sufficient to deal with some extremely super spreading events. In such cases, other methods such as PPE （per- sonal protective equipments） are needed.