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基于实物期权理论的煤炭开采项目投资评价方法研究

Study on evaluating methods of coal mining projects investment based on real options theory
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摘要 煤炭行业处于国民经济中的重要地位,就其投资项目而言,其勘探开采具有周期长、投资规模大、风险高等特点。煤炭开采项目投资传统的评价方法没有考虑勘探开采过程中的多种选择性,进而造成传统评价方法低估项目价值。本文在分析煤炭开采项目传统投资评价方法不足的基础上,结合煤炭开采项目自身特点引入实物期权理论与方法,揭示项目投资中蕴含的期权思想,建立扩张期权和时机选择期权评价模型,为煤炭企业进行科学的投资决策提供一种全新的方法与思路。 The coal industry is in an important position in the national economy, as far as its investment projects are concerned, its exploration and exploitation are characterized by the long cycle, large-scale investment and high risks. The traditional evaluating methods of coal mining project investments do not consider the various selectivities in the process of exploration and ex- ploitation, so they always underestimate the value of the projects. Based on the analysis of the shortages of the traditional evaluating methods, combining with the coal mining projects" own characteristics, the paper introduces the real options theory and method, to reveal the option thoughts implied in the project investments, and it establishes the evaluating models of expansion option and timing option, which provide new methods and ideas for coal enterprises in scientific investment decision-making.
出处 《中国煤炭》 北大核心 2012年第5期25-28,共4页 China Coal
基金 河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2009BJJ010) 河南省科技计划软科学研究项目(102400450251)阶段性研究成果
关键词 煤炭开采项目 净现值 实物期权 投资决策 coal mining project, net present value, real options, investment decision-making
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