基于单位线反演的产流误差修正

Runoff error updating based on unit hydrograph inversion

为提高实时洪水预报的精度,将单位线引入实时洪水预报修正中,建立一种向信息源头追溯的反馈修正模型。用最小二乘估计原理,通过推求产流量误差,用理想模型对误差修正模型进行了验证,并对不同范围的产流量误差修正效果进行对比。在浙江长潭流域对11场历史洪水进行修正验证,效果明显,对预报精度有一定的提高。该方法结构简单,且不增加参数,物理概念清晰,又不损失预见期,可以在实际流域洪水预报中推广应用。

In order to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting, the unit hydrograph was introduced to the real-time flood forecast updating system. The error feedback updating model tracing the source of information was established. In this paper, the details of the model structure and principles were described, and the ideal model was set to test the efficiency of the updating system. The correct results of different error ranges were compared. The results indicated that the efficiency of the updating system was improved, and the proposed method with simple structure, clear physical concept, and the forecast lead period is not lost. Conclusively, the proposed method could be widely applied in real-time flood forecast updating.