城市洪水灾害易损性多属性动态评价

Multi-attribute dynamic evaluation of urban flood disaster vulnerability

近年来极端天气事件频发,尤其洪水灾害日趋频繁并且影响深远。在众多易损性概念基础上,进一步明确了城市易损性的内涵,并构建了城市洪水灾害易损性的评价指标体系。针对传统多属性决策方法——逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)不能比较正、负理想解中垂线上点的问题,采用Kullback-Leibler距离计算评价对象与正理想解的贴近度,建立了KL-TOPSIS模型,应用该模型对哈尔滨市2005～2009年洪水灾害易损性进行了动态评价,得出其易损性先升后降的结论,并通过横向比较发现哈尔滨市的洪水灾害易损性要小于同时期的沈阳市、武汉市和上海市。

In recent years, the number of extreme weather events rose greatly, especially larger flood disasters, happening more frequently and impacting more seriously. Based on numerous concepts of vulnerability, urban vulnerability was clarified, and an evaluation index system of urban flood disaster vulnerability was constructed. As one of methods of multiple attribute decision making, Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution （TOPSIS） could not compare the dots on the mid-perpendicular of positive ideal solution and negative ideal solution. Kullback- Leibler distance was used to calculate the similarity degree between the evaluation object and positive ideal solution. And then, this KL-TOPSIS model was made use to evaluate the Harbin＇s flood disaster vulnerability from 2005 to 2009 dynamically with the conclusion that it first increased and then dropped. Through the horizontal comparison, it was found that Harbin＇s flood disaster vulnerability was less than contemporary Shenyang, Wuhan and Shanghai.