电网连锁性故障发生可能性的模糊模拟评估方法

A Fuzzy Simulation Assessment Method of Occurrence Possibility of Power Grid Cascading Failures

蒙特卡罗模拟评估法大多采用经典概率测度或模糊测度刻画连锁性故障发生的可能性,要达到一定精度需进行大量的抽样计算。为弥补其不足,以可信性理论为基础,提出一种模糊模拟评估电网连锁性故障发生可能性的新方法。以隐性故障模型作连锁性故障的传播机制,对其不确定属性的物理和数学本质进行详细分析,以可信性测度作为刻画故障发生可能性的评价测度。对WSCC 9节点测试系统和某西部地区电网进行仿真分析,并与传统方法比较,结果证明,该方法仅需少量的抽样计算就能准确识别出发生可能性较小的连锁性故障,具有适应性、有效性和准确性的特点。

The Monte Carlo simulation assessment methods mostly adopt the classical probability measure or fuzzy measure to describe the occurrence possibility of cascading failures in power grids, and they need a large number of samplings to ensure a certain calculation premise. In order to avoid these deficiencies, a new fuzzy simulation assessment method to solve the occurrence possibility of cascading failures was proposed on the basis of credibility theory. Using thehidden failure model as the propagation mechanism of cascading failures, the physical and mathematical essence of cascading failures were analyzed in detail, and the credibility measure was applied to describe their occurrence possibilities. On the simulation analysis of the WSCC 9-bus test system and a western regional power grid, compared with some traditional methods, the results have proved that the proposed method can accurately identify the cascading failures with small possibilities only conditioned upon less sampling calculations, and it is characterized by adaptability, validity and accuracy.