昌吉市建设用地需求量预测研究

Study on Land Demand for Construction Use in Changji City

在昌吉市新一轮土地利用规划修编工作如火如荼进行的大背景下,通过对昌吉市建设用地进行分析,采用2000-2009年的建设用地数据,确立相关影响因子,建立了灰色系统GM(1,1)模型和BP神经网络预测模型并分别进行精度验证,综合两个模型的优点,预测出2015年和2020年的建设用地需求量,为昌吉市新一轮土地利用规划修编工作提供决策依据和技术支持。

This paper analyze the characteristics of constructing area utilization in Changji city which bases on the specific research of forecasting methods, using the selected ten years＇ construction land use data from 2000 to 2009 linked to the reality of Changji city to establish the impact factors through the analysis of the character of constrnction land use, and set up the GM（1 , 1） model, and the BP neural network model of construction land use demand, then studied and analyzed the results of prediction under two model. Finally, by adding all those model＇s advantages, we forecast the demand for construction land-using of the year 2015 and 2020, and provide teehnieal and decisionmaking support for the general planning and the new turn revision of land utilization in Changji city.