新疆二氧化硫排放环境学习曲线及减排潜力研究

Environment Learning Curve and Emission Reducing Potential of SO_2 Emission in XinJiang

基于2005-2010年SO2排放量和经济发展数据,对该时段的SO2排放环境负荷变化进行分析并以此数据构建了新疆三大地区万元产值SO2排放量随人均GDP变化的环境学习曲线;以所建立的环境学习曲线为依据,分析2005-2010年万元产值SO2的减排潜力,并对新疆"十二五"期间不同地区万元SO2的节能减排潜力进行了预测。结果表明:经济发展水平越高的地区,万元产值SO2排放环境负荷越小,减排潜力越小;经济发展水平越低的地区,万元产值SO2排放环境负荷越大,减排潜力也越大。研究结果将为"十二五"自治区SO2排放总量控制及减排指标提供科学依据。

Based on SO2 emissions data during 2005-2010, the change of envirornment burden in this phase were analyzed, envirornnent learning curve of SO2 emission per ten thousand Yuan production value and GDP per capita were built in 3 states,and the change of SO2 emission following envirornment producuting consciousness enhancing and reducing emission technology advancing were discovered .According to the envirornment learning curve of SO2 emission, emission reducing potential of SO2 from 2005 to 2010 in the phase were analyzed, energy-saving potentials of per 104 Y energy consumption during the 12th five-year plan period have been analyzed and calculated. The results show that in some provinces where the level of economic development is higher, environment burthen of SO2 emission is lower and emission reducing potential of SO2 is smaller; Conversely, in other provinces where the level of economic is lower, environment burthen of SO2 emission is higher and emission reducing potential of SO2 is bigger. The research results will provide a scientific basis of the SO2 total emission control and emission reduction targets for XinJiang Province.