克服艰难险阻

Beating the odds

不断上升的运费提高了跨太平洋航运公司2012年复苏的可能性，但货主仍然占据博弈上风。

Rising rates improve trans-Pacific carriers' chances of a 2012 recovery,but shippers still hold the upper hand on capacity.What a difference four months can make.When 2012 dawned,doom prevailed throughout the containing shipping industry.Spot container rates in the critical Asia-to-U.S.trade were hovering near their 52-week lows,down more than 25 percent year-over-year with the slowest shipping season of the year ahead.Dire predictions of overcapacity,wrought by an armada of new mega-ships due for 2012 delivery and nearuniversal forecasts of stagnant economic and trade growth,pervaded.Fast-forward to spring,when the dark winter turns to a spirit of renewal.For ocean carriers desperate to make money this year after losing a collective $6.5 billion in 2011,the winter's darkness,like the severe weather,never came.Instead,the outlook for carriers brightened.Those plodding,non-compensatory rates of 2011 went on a tear,soaring nearly 70 percent between December and mid-April in the trade from Hong Kong to Los Angeles,to $2,405 per 40-foot container.Carriers intend to capitalize on the good times in the eastbound Pacific while they can because,although they appear to have weathered the storm,freight rates could plummet in the fourth quarter,and no carrier can afford another year stained in red ink.Still,volumes also are picking up.U.S.imports increased 7.3 percent year-over-year in March after falling 5.9 percent during the post-Chinese New Year lull in February,according to JOC sister company PIERS.In the end,the extent to which carriers bring those big,new ships on line will tell the story.Although carriers want to increase the size of their vessels to benefit from lower per-unit carrying costs,those mega-ships deliver a favorable return on investment only if they are operated at high utilization rates.Introducing too many big ships too quickly will jettison any hopes for a peak-season surcharge — and perhaps the carrier renewal that,for now,looks to be under way.