四川地质灾害背景下世界遗产保护与可持续发展研究

WORLD HERITAGE PROTECTION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT UNDER GEOLOGICAL DISASTERS IN SICHUAN PROVINCE

近几年全球自然灾害频发,特别是地震等地质灾害,不仅破坏力强,且常常引发严重的次生灾害。四川省是我国著名的地质灾害多发区,尤其2008年的"5.12"大地震及此后频发的崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害,给环境和人民生命财产带来巨大伤害,也使其境内的5项世界遗产遭到不同程度的破坏。根据四川省地质灾害发生时间集中、连锁反应大、成灾模式清楚的特点,依托地学原理,在前人的研究基础上采用逻辑回归模型,定量分析灾害发生频率,并建议采用模糊综合评价法对遗产地的潜在威胁进行对比分析。此外,根据震后灾害的特点和遗产保护及修复的经验,提出遗产地管理的几点建议,试图为地质灾害多发区遗产地保护和管理提供理论和实践依据。

In recent years, natural disasters occur frequently all around the world. Especially earthquakes not only are destructive but also lead to serious secondary disasters. Sichuan Province is a well-known geological disaster area in China. On May 12th, 2008, an earthquake struck Wenchuan area followed by avalanches, landslides and debris flows, threatening the very existence of the 5 World Heritage sites, designated by UNESCO, and reducing them to a vulnerable state. This paper summarizes the characteristics of the geological disasters such as short duration, strong chain reactions, clear patterns, etc. Based on geological principles and methods and on previous research results the paper introduces the logistic regression model to do quantitative analysis of disasters frequency. Also via the application of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the potential damages and threats will be evaluated and analyzed together with heritage restoration and protective experience, attempting to provide theoretical and practical basis for heritage conservation and management of geological disaster areas.