中国当前FTA贸易效应分析与比较

China's Current FTA Trade Effect Analysis and Comparison

根据2002-2010年中国进出口数据,利用混合效应面板数据模型,考察中国当前FTA的贸易创造效应和贸易转移效应,得出如下结论:中国参与FTA产生的贸易创造效应明显,而贸易转移效应较少;中国参与FTA明显推动了中国出口,而对进口影响因伙伴国不同而有所差异;FTA成立时间越长,体现出的贸易创造和贸易转移效应越明显;FTA的贸易效应与伙伴国经济发展水平密切相关;FTA伙伴国地理距离越近,贸易效应越明显。中国应选择经济互补性强、资源丰富、市场潜力大的国家缔结FTA,逐步扩大区域经济合作的地域范围,建立更广泛的区域经济合作伙伴关系。

This paper mainly examines the trade creation and diversion effect of China＇s FTA. According to import and export data of China form 2002-2010, using mixed panel data model, regression results are as follows： trade creation effect is more than trade diversion effect to a great degree; China＇s participation in FTA promotes China＇s exports obviously, and the influence on imports differs for different partners; trade creation and trade diversion effect become more obvious with the time passing; trade effect is closely related to the partner＇s economic development level and geography distance. China should choose the coutries with strong economic com- plementarity, rich resources and large potential market as FTA partners, gradually expand regional integration geographic scope, build broader regional economic cooperation relation.