气候变暖背景下宿州冬小麦适播期的确定

Determination of Optimum Sowing Date of Winter Wheat in Suzhou under Global Warming

利用1954-2007年气候监测资料,采用线性变化倾向率、滑动平均等数理统计方法,研究分析宿州市冬小麦播种-越冬期的气候变化趋势,并提出气候变暖背景下冬小麦的适播期。结果表明,当地传统播种期内(10月5-20日)日平均气温以0.4℃.10a-1的速率显著升高(P<0.01),秋季适宜冬小麦播种的日平均气温16℃的指标推迟出现。按传统播期上、下限播种至小麦越冬时的活动积温呈显著增加趋势(P<0.01)。因此在气候变暖背景下,冬小麦适播期比传统播期推迟7～8d,即在10月15-25日播种,更利于防止小麦冬前旺长、徒长和生育进程提前,实现壮苗越冬。

Climatic variation during winter wheat seeding to overwintering in Suzhou was analyzed by using tendency rate of linear variation, moving average method and mathematical statistics based on the observed meteorological data from 1954 to 2007. The results showed that the average daily temperature in regular seeding season increased at the rate of 0. 4 ~C ~ 10y-1（ p 〈 0. 01 ）. The date of average daily temperature ~〉16~C in autumn, which was optimum tem- perature for winter wheat seeding, was delayed. The active accumulated temperature from regular seeding season to over- wintering increased significantly（P 〈0. 01 ）. The optimum seeding time for winter wheat postponed to 15 -25 October, delayed 7 -8 days than regular time with climate warming. Which was help to prevent prosperous grow before winter.