中国碳排放库兹涅茨曲线存在性研究

Study on Existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve of Carbon Emissions in China

经济增长与环境恶化之间的矛盾直接推动了碳排放库兹涅茨曲线的研究。本文基于1995—2009年中国省际碳排放面板数据,利用面板协整和误差修正模型对中国碳排放库兹涅茨曲线的存在性进行实证研究,结果发现:动态固定效应下的面板误差修正模型最优,碳排放与经济增长间存在长期稳定的倒U型关系,拐点为人均国内生产总值29847.29元,且存在短期误差修正机制;与权威机构的时序数据回归结果比较,动态面板模型结果具有稳健性。

The studies of carbon Kuznets curve are directly contributed to the contradiction between economic growth and environmental degradation.Based on the provincial carbon emission panel data from 1995 to 2009,this paper makes an empirical study of the long-term and short-term effect of environmental Kuznets curve for China＇s carbon emissions by the methods of panel cointegration and panel error correction model（ECM）.The results show that： the dynamic FE estimator of ECM is optimal.There is a long-term inversed-U-shaped curve between carbon emission and economic growth to show the existence of CKC,the inflection point is 29847.29 yuan per capita GDP.There is a short-term error correction mechanism to reflect the fluctuations.Compared with the result of time series from authority,the results of dynamic panel model are robust.