论美国宏观经济对中美贸易失衡影响的定性与定量分析

Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of the US Macro-economy and Sino-US Trade Imbalance

中美货物贸易失衡已成为困扰中美经贸发展的最大障碍,导致了中美大量贸易摩擦的发生。定性分析表明,美国国内个人储蓄和国内总投资的缺口以及美国大量的财政赤字两方面因素,共同导致了美国对外贸易失衡;定量分析表明,美国国内个人储蓄和国内总投资的缺口与中美贸易失衡之间存在协整关系,美国国内个人储蓄和国内总投资的缺口是中美贸易失衡的格兰杰原因;美国财政赤字和中美贸易失衡之间并不存在协整关系。若想缓解中美贸易失衡,美国需改善国内宏观经济失衡。

Trade imbalance has been the most serious obstacle to Sino-US economic and trade development and led to lots of trade frictions between China and America. The qualitative analysis shows that personal savings, gross domestic investment and large budget deficits in US results in its foreign trade imbalance, while the quantitative analysis indicates that there is a co-integration relationship between personal savings, domestic investment in US and Sino-US trade imbalance. The former two are the Granger cause of the latter. There is no co-integration relationship between US budget deficits and Sino-US trade imbalance. Ways to ease the imbalance depend on the improvement of US domestic macroeconomic imbalance.