城镇化、老龄化背景下新型农村养老保险财务状况研究:2011年～2050年

On Financial Situation of New Rural Old-Age Insurance in the Context of Urbanization and Aging: 2011～2050

现有对新型农村养老保险财务状况的研究忽略了现收现付制和完全积累制两种不同筹资模式的差异,严重低估了新农保资金缺口数额。在对两种不同筹资模式分别进行测算的基础上,实证分析了未来新农保财务收支状况及对政府财政的压力,发现在现有制度标准下,新农保资金缺口对财政的压力相对较小,但养老金收入替代率低下;个人账户资金缺口增长速度很快,值得重视。在此基础上,提出了相应的政策建议。

Existing researches on financial situation of China＇s new rural old-age insurance ignore the difference between pay-as-you-go system and fully funded system, which seriously underestimates funding gap of new rural oldage insurance. On the basis of considering these two different financial modes, financial situation of new rural oldage insurance and its pressures on government finances in future is empirically analyzed. It＇s found that based on existing system standards, the pressure of new rural old-age insurance＇ funding gap on government finance is rela- tively small, but pension replacement rate is very low. The funding gap of individual account increases rapidly, which is worth paying close attention. In the end, policy recommendations are proposed.