草鱼出血病发生风险半定量评估模型的构建

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for the outbreak of grass carp hemorrhage

本研究通过调查、分析草鱼出血病发生的各种风险因素,初步构建该病发生的风险评估模型,旨在为防控疾病提供决策依据。该模型包括由层次分析法构建的指标体系,以德菲尔法确定的各风险因素权重,由综合评价法表述的风险评估结果。构建的草鱼出血病风险指标体系包括9个目标层,即鱼种(B1)、免疫(B2)、水质(B3)、放养密度(B4)、水温(B5)、饲养管理(B6)、发病史(B7)、天气(B8)、池塘状况(B9);26个风险指标层,主要包括如鱼种是否带毒(C1)、是否免疫(C4)、免疫时健康状况(C6)、放养密度(C13)、水温(C14)、近年来发病情况(C19)等。目标层风险因素权重值集合为W={0.167;0.202;0.124;0.109;0.101;0.097;0.092;0.081;0.064},其中免疫和鱼种权重值最高。采用综合评价法表示风险评估结果,其函数模型为,ij ij得出华中地区、西南地区和华南地区发生草鱼出血病的风险值分别是0.699、0.690、0.568,与实际调查结果相符,即采取免疫接种措施后华南地区发生草鱼出血病的风险较华中和西南地区低。

Risk analysis can be used to guide decision-making processes to prevent the spread and outbreaks of disease.We documented the risk factors for Grass Carp Hemorrhage（GCH） by analyzing epidemic data and epi-demiological investigations.Using this information,we constructed a model to estimate the risk of GCH outbreak.The model included a risk index system,established using an analytical hierarchy process（AHP）,risk weightings,determined using the Delphi method,and risk results,expressed using the synthetic evaluation method.The risk index system included 9 guidelines（B1–B9） and 26 risk hazard factors（C1–C26）.The guidelines included： B1 fry,B2 immunity,B3 water quality,B4 rearing density,B5 water temperature,B6 feed and management,B7 outbreak history,B8 weather,and B9 pond status relative to guidelines.The primary risk hazard factors included： C1 fry bringing virus or not,C4 fry accepting vaccine or not,C6 health status when immunized,C13 rearing density,C14 water temperature,C19 outbreak history of GCH.The risk weights set for the nine guidelines were W={0.167,0.202,0.124,0.109,0.101,0.097,0.092,0.081,0.064}.The highest weightings were applied to B2 and B1.We conducted a synthetic evaluation to calculate the risk value using the following model：.We used this model to assess the level of risk in three areas,Central China,Southwest and Southern China.Our results suggest that the risk of outbreak was lowest in Southern China（0.568） and higher in the other two locations（Cen-tral China： 0.699,Southwest China： 0.690）.